In Progress

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"Talking in a Language that Everyone Can Understand?" with Alexander Glas [latest version]

Abstract: Using data on speeches held by members of the European Central Bank’s Executive Board, we analyze whether the clarity of central bank communication has increased over time. Using readability measures as proxy variables, we find that the clarity of information provision is trending upward since the inception of the European Central Bank. The increase in clarity is gradual, rather than being induced by changes in the board composition or major macroeconomic events. However, even under Christine Lagarde’s presidency, clarity is rather low. We also show that the relationship between the sentiment of speeches and media sentiment about the European Central Bank depends on the level of clarity of speeches.

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"Improving Tests Based on Vectors of Statistics" with Jonas Dovern and Hans Manner

Abstract: We propose a data-driven way for testing combined hypotheses based on vectors of subsidiary statistics by using P-values of the subsidiary statistics to form weights when combining the latter into an overall statistic. In particular, we propose to use the sum of the subsidiary statistics, each weighted by the difference between one and its P-value. A Monte Carlo simulation shows that the new test effectively controls the size of the overall test and has better power relative to existing benchmarks in the context of specification testing.

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"The Importance of ECB Presidents' Speeches and Communication Difficulty in Monetary Policy"